A Renewable Future

Most scientists are in agreement that we need to build out renewables, energy storage, the grid, and then try to move non-grid transportation, industry, and heat to the grid if possible.  Bill Gates recently wrote a book in agreement with this philosophy “How to Avoid a Climate Disaster”. 

Let’s draw this up a little, price it out and look at some options for the largest and easiest conversions to make…electricity and light duty vehicles and also include converting 50% of residential and commercial heating to the grid.

Future phases can look at bigger vehicles and machinery, boats, airplanes, industrial fossil fuels, farming etc.

How Much of the Carbon Emissions is Electricity, Light Duty Vehicles and Half of Heating?

  • Direct Savings
    • 26.3% (1,752.8 MMT CO2e) Carbon emissions from electricity
    • 16% (1,068.0 MMT CO2e) Passenger cars, light duty trucks
    • 4% (291.9 MMT CO2e) Half of residential and commercial natural gas heating (move to electric)
  • Indirect Savings
    • 2.4% (159.5 MMT CO2e) Assuming half of the emissions from oil and natural gas systems go away as a result of the above drastic cut in demand. [1]
    • 1.4% (91 MMT CO2e) Assuming half of the emissions from oil refineries are eliminated from the above large cut in demand.
    • 0.8% (52.7 MMT CO2e) Methane emissions from coal mining are eliminated
    • 0.3% (21.8 MMT CO2e) Half of Nitrous Oxide emissions from stationary and mobile combustion
  • Total decrease is 51.6% (3,437.7 MMT CO2e)
  • A net decrease is 58.2% if you include the 773.5 MMT CO2e of carbon absorption from land use and forestry
  • A net decrease of 63.3% if you give methane a 4x instead of a 25x CO2 equivalent per discussion and reference in the emissions section of this website.
  • Carbon emissions from the 2018 GHG Report [2]

What is the Increase in Energy Demand on the Grid?

Preliminary Calculations (annual basis)

Residential and Commercial Heating is 0.5 x (4,998 + 3,514) = 4,256 Billion Cubic Feet of Natural Gas [3]

At 0.29 kwh / CF that equates to 1,234 Billion kwh

Assuming transportation to be replaced is roughly equal to gasoline consumption in the United States in 2018 which was 3,405 Million Barrels [4]

3,405 Million Barrels x 42 Gallons per Barrel = 143,010 Million Gallons

Assume an average of 25 miles per gallon per vehicle

143,010 million gallons x 25 miles per gallon = 3,575 billion miles

Assume an EV gets 3.5 miles per kwh

3,575 billion miles / 3.5 miles per kwh = 1,021 Billion kwh

 

Final Breakdown (annual basis)

  • Half of Residential and Commercial natural gas is 1,234 Billion kwh
  • Light Duty Transportation 1,021 Billion kwh
  • Natural Gas Electric 1,469 Billion kwh [5]
  • Coal Electric 1,149 Billion kwh [5]
  • Petroleum Electric 25 Billion kwh [5]
  • Other Fossil Fuel Electric 13 Billion kwh [5]
  • Grid Power that is already renewable / nuclear 1,522 Billion kwh [5]
  • Future Growth 1,000 Billion kwh

Current Grid Energy Consumed in 2018: 4,178 Billion kwh [5]

Future Grid Energy to be Supplied: 7,433 Billion kwh

Renewables to add to the grid: 5,911 Billion kwh

What is the Cost Picture?

 Renewable Generation

  • Wind and solar are both about $2000 per kw to install at the large utility scale.
  • Over a year each kw installed generates about 2,000 kwh in electricity 1kw x 8,760 hours/year x 23% capacity factor = 2,000 kwh
  • Therefore we can approximate $1 to install $1 kwh per year in energy. ($2,000 per kw to generate 2,000 kwh per year)
  • Renewables to be added are 5,911 Billion kwh making generation costs $5.9 Trillion

The Grid

  • American Electric Power proposed a 400 GW concept 19,000 mile supergrid at $60 billion in 2007. A larger grid than that will be needed on the order of a few hundred billion. 

Storage

Some combination of energy storage, extra generation, and backup fossil or nucleaur power plants will be needed.  If the United States consumes 7,433 Billion kwh per year, then on average it is consuming 7,433 Billion kwh / 8760 hours/year = 849 Million kw.  To store 1 hour of energy of the entire grid at $150 per kwh is $127 Billion.  If we assume 12 hours of storage we get a cost of $1.5 trillion.  Renewable generation will not be 0, so in reality 12 hours of storage is like 4.5 days of a 10% shortage in generation.

Electric Vehicles

The vehicle fleet turns over every 15 years on average in the United States.  Electric vehicles are anticipated to be near the cost of gasoline in the coming years, not to mention savings on fuel and maintenance.  Any monetary incentive needed will likely be minor. A used electric car in 10-15 years will be an economical, low maintenance option for many working Americans.

Electric vehicles, along with energy storage features, will be a good way to shave energy peaks by incentivizing the time of the day that is easiest on the grid.

Electric Heating

Transitioning natural gas heating to electric over years is not much different than normal upgrades to your home.  Furnaces and heat pump replacement is routine in homes.  Any incentive needed will be nominal.

Future Cash Flow

The feedstock of renewables (sunlight and wind) doesn’t require any drilling or mining, so in time a higher capital cost is paid off, or at least decreased.  We can also use the government to borrow money, which can do so cheaper than private entities.

On an annual basis:

  • Saving 143 Billion Gallons of Gas at $3 per gallon is $429 Billion saved
  • Saving 10 cents per kwh of fossil fuels currently on the grid is $266 Billion
  • Saving 1 cent per CF of natural gas to residential / commercial is $43 Billion
  • Costing 1 cent per kwh of renewables for operations and maintenance is -$57 Billion
  • Cost to replace 2% of the output each year due to degradation and replacement is -$149 Billion (7,433 x 0.02)

What Does the Area Look Like?

5,911 Billion KWH per year to add

Solar is 161.2 million KWH per square mile per year.  Wind is approximated at 81.6 million KWH per square mile per year.

For the sake of argument let’s assume a 50/50 mix which equates to 36,700 square miles of solar and 72,400 square miles of wind.  The map below shows an approximate area needed for this.

References

  1. United States Environmental Protection Agency. “Facility Level Information on GreenHouse Gases Tool: F.L.I.G.H.T” Year 2018. https://ghgdata.epa.gov/ghgp/main.do?site_preference=normal#
  2. United States Environmental Protection Agency. 2018 Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks. https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/inventory-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-sinks. Accessed February 12, 2021.
  3. Energy Information Administration “Annual Energy Review > Natural Gas > 6.5 Natural Gas Consumption by Sector.” https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual/. Accessed March 14, 2021
  4. Energy Information Administration “Petroleum and Other Liquids > Data > Finished Motor Gasoline” https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_cons_psup_a_EPM0F_VPP_mbblpd_a.htm. Accessed March 14, 2021

  5. United States Environmental Protection Agency. 2018 Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks. https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/inventory-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-sinks. Accessed February 12, 2021.